DRAM demand is driven by three compounding forces over the next five years. First, AI server buildout: DDR5 server DRAM content per AI server is rising rapidly as LLM model sizes grow, and hyperscaler capex remains elevated through at least 2028. Second, consumer recovery: PC and mobile DRAM pricing bottomed in late 2024; the next upgrade cycle — AI PCs and on-device inference — drives a step-up in content per device. Third, automotive growth: ADAS and in-vehicle compute require higher DRAM density, with content per vehicle growing ~30% annually. Bear case assumes China macro headwinds delay consumer recovery and hyperscaler capex moderates in 2027–2028 as AI infrastructure utilization comes under scrutiny. Bull case assumes on-device AI inference accelerates mobile DRAM content faster than expected and new AI server architectures require 2–3× more memory bandwidth per node.
“Cloud Memory +307% Y/Y as hyperscaler AI infrastructure buildout accelerates. Server DRAM content per unit rising with larger LLM model footprints.”
“Server DRAM demand strong entering H2 driven by AI server shipments. DDR5 attach rate accelerating faster than expected at hyperscalers.”
“Mobile & Client +254% Y/Y — consumer DRAM recovery ahead of prior guidance. PC DRAM pricing stabilizing as inventory correction mostly complete.”
“Consumer PC DRAM pricing finding floor after extended correction. Recovery pace dependent on China macroeconomic conditions and PC refresh cycle timing.”